Written by Jim Metzler
Jim Metzler is an expert at researching and analyzing emerging technology trends within the networking and service provider space.
The transition from a largely physical environment to a largely virtualized environment will not happen in the next two years. Capacity planning is still necessary to forecast the required resources for hosting increasingly virtualized environments. In ten years, we’ll see a shift from capacity planning to license management.
I've heard the comment that in this new virtualized world capacity planning is dead. I want to put that in a context of a quote from Bill Gates of Microsoft. Gates' quote it is saying, "We typically over estimate what's possible in two years and underestimate what's possible in ten." The meaning of that quote in this context is, in the next two years they'll be more virtualized functionality out there. But we're not going to go from a largely physical environment to a largely virtualized environment in two years, it's not going to happen. It won't happen in the enterprise and it won't happen in the service provider. Ten years out, yes, almost likely; almost definitely, we'll have a highly virtualized environment in ten years. Between now and then, capacity planning has the same meaning it's always had. We still have to plan for those dedicated appliances and we certainly need to plan for the servers on which we're hosting that virtualized functionality. Now as we get to a more virtualized environment, more of the capacity planning goes to those servers and to licensed management to manage the licenses for all the software we're running on top of that. But for the next two, three, four years, capacity planning will not change dramatically.